Asia Cup final: Pakistan’s five-wicket victory over Sri Lanka in the Asia Cup 2025 has ensured that all squads in the Super Fours phase of the regional cricket competition have a shot at qualifying for the final. While Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan still have their destiny in their own hands.
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Sri Lanka is clinging to a hope and prayer that three games unfold in their favor, including two that do not involve them. How, then, can each of the four teams secure a spot in the final? Al Jazeera breaks it down as it stands before the Bangladesh vs India contest.
The Tigers began the Super Fours with a roar as they kept their composure to defeat Sri Lanka by four wickets in a last-over finish on Saturday. The victory earned them two points and a net run rate (NRR) of 0.121, which keeps them in the mix as the three top-placed teams for the final.
A triumph over India in their contest on Wednesday will significantly boost Bangladesh’s chances of qualifying for the Asia Cup Super-Four final, but they won’t be assured a spot until Friday, when it could all come down to NRR calculations. However, should they lose to India, Litton Das’s squad will face a virtual semifinal against Pakistan on Thursday.
Asia Cup: India on Verge of Final Bangladesh’s Fate at Stake
India is the only undefeated team in the tournament and has the strongest position in the Super Fours stage after defeating Pakistan convincingly on Sunday. Their NRR stands at 0.689, helping the Twenty20 world champions maintain the top position on the Super Fours points table.
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If India triumphs over Bangladesh on Wednesday, they will secure a spot in the Asia Cup 2025 final and await the winners of the Bangladesh vs Pakistan match. Pakistan, known for their late resurgences, has kept their hopes alive by defeating Sri Lanka in their second Super Fours game.
They are now second on the table with two points and an NRR of 0.226, ahead of Bangladesh, whom they face in their final Super Fours match. Pakistan will hope India defeats the Tigers on Wednesday, and then aim to do the same a day later to meet their archrivals in the September 28 final.
They must wait and pray for the outcomes in the Bangladesh vs India and Bangladesh vs Pakistan fixtures to go their way before having the ability to shape their chances for the final. For Sri Lanka to have any chance, Bangladesh must defeat both India and Pakistan by large margins.
Asia Cup Super-Four: India Pakistan Sri Lanka Race for Final
Such a scenario would result in two points each for India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The islanders would then need to secure a massive victory against Bangladesh in the final Super Fours match on Friday. If the Lions’ stars align and they manage to win by a huge margin.

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Sri Lanka could eliminate the two South Asian giants on the basis of a lower NRR and set up a final matchup against Bangladesh. Pakistan’s five-wicket victory over Sri Lanka in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday has shifted the dynamics of the Asia Cup 2025 Super Four stage, making the race for a place in the final more unpredictable.
The triumph has brought Pakistan back into contention and created a tight three-way contest with India and Bangladesh. With each squad having at least one victory, net run rate and remaining games are now likely to play a critical role in determining who reaches the summit clash.
India, with the best net run rate and two matches still to play, is in a dominant position for the Asia Cup 2025. However, they cannot afford to make any mistakes against Bangladesh. On the other hand, Pakistan, energized by their win over Sri Lanka, must rely on the outcome of the India vs Bangladesh match to determine their path to the final.
Asia Cup Final: Pakistan’s Hopes Live Bangladesh in Tight Spot
Meanwhile, Bangladesh faces the tough challenge of playing two matches within 24 hours. A victory against India could keep their Asia Cup 2025 final hopes alive, but their lower net run rate means even a win might not be enough to secure a spot in the final.
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As the Super Four phase heads into its concluding leg, cricket fans are set for tense battles, with every run and wicket now carrying the weight of potential qualification. Pakistan kept their hopes of reaching the Asia Cup 2025 final alive with a five-wicket victory over Sri Lanka in their Super 4 clash on Tuesday.
Pakistan restricted Sri Lanka to 133/8 with Shaheen Afridi taking three wickets while Hussain Talat and Haris Rauf contributed with two each. Kamindu Mendis was the top scorer for Sri Lanka with 50. In reply. Mohammad Nawaz and Talat stitched together a brilliant partnership after a shaky start as Pakistan chased down the target in 18 overs.
As a result, Pakistan has 2 points from 2 matches in the Super 4 stage, and they can still reach the Asia Cup final. If Pakistan wins its final Super 4 match against Bangladesh, it will have an excellent chance of reaching the final. If Bangladesh loses against India, they will also have 2 points from 2 matches.
Bangladesh vs Pakistan Virtual Qualifier NRR Key
In that case, their match against Pakistan will become a virtual qualifier for the summit clash.
If Bangladesh wins against India, they will have 4 points from 2 matches. A win for Pakistan against Bangladesh and a loss for India against Sri Lanka will guarantee that Pakistan will reach the final.

However, if Pakistan beats Bangladesh and India beats Sri Lanka in their final match after losing to Bangladesh, all three teams will have 4 points, with Sri Lanka at 0. In that case, the two finalists will be decided by Net Run Rate (NRR).
If Pakistan loses to Bangladesh and India drops both of its remaining matches against Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, Bangladesh will be guaranteed a spot in the Asia Cup 2025 final. India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan will all have 2 points, and the second finalist will be decided by Net Run Rate (NRR).
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